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Won't even be nominated- yeah right sure.

Posted by: ShowGoer 12:56 pm EDT 03/14/14
In reply to: ABSURD! Won't even be nominated;"Rocky" & "Bullets" 2 of the worst in 10 years! ... - MichaelAS 10:15 am EDT 03/14/14

That right there is the ABSURD comment especially in a season when there are (likely) going to be 5 nominees. But if Nice Work if You Can Get It can get 10 nominations (winning two) My One and Only 9 nominations (winning three) and Crazy For You 9 nominations (winning 3, including the big one), it's impossible to even consider that this tired-businessman's throwback, created by well-respected Broadway professionals, won't clean up big time on Tony nomination morning.

And I'd have to say, having now seen all the other new musicals this season EXCEPT for Bullets, regardless of how good/bad/mediocre/great it turns out to be, it's not at all difficult for me to imagine it winning Best Musical.


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After Mid, Aladin, Beautiful, Gentlemen's Guide & If/Then...DONE! Easy! nm

Posted by: MichaelAS 03:40 pm EDT 03/14/14
In reply to: Won't even be nominated- yeah right sure. - ShowGoer 12:56 pm EDT 03/14/14

nm


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re: After Mid, Aladin, Beautiful, Gentlemen's Guide & If/Then...DONE! Easy! nm

Posted by: ShowGoer 04:04 pm EDT 03/14/14
In reply to: After Mid, Aladin, Beautiful, Gentlemen's Guide & If/Then...DONE! Easy! nm - MichaelAS 03:40 pm EDT 03/14/14

Yes, easy - except you're wrong.
Even if you're right that Bullets (and, slightly more likely, Rocky) go home with no nomination for Best Musical, Bridges will be nominated ahead of Aladdin.
If/Then is the real wild card here, since it hasn't opened yet, but as the only new original musical I think they'll want to (and that it deserves to) be recognized.
If Bridges is still running in early May, the nominations will be Beautiful, Bullets, Gentleman's Guide, If/Then, and either Bridges, After Midnight, or Rocky. If Bridges has posted notice, the 5th slot will go to either Rocky or the revue.
I don't think Aladdin sincerely has a shot either way - it's been a long time, Newsies score aside, since Disney's gotten any Tony love for just throwing their musicals onstage.


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re: After Mid, Aladin, Beautiful, Gentlemen's Guide & If/Then...DONE! Easy! nm

Posted by: AlanScott 05:56 pm EDT 03/14/14
In reply to: re: After Mid, Aladin, Beautiful, Gentlemen's Guide & If/Then...DONE! Easy! nm - ShowGoer 04:04 pm EDT 03/14/14

Especially with five nominating slots, the folks on the nominating committee who liked Bridges won't hesitate to vote for it. The nominating committee, even as the folks comprising it change over time, pretty consistently seem to vote what they feel.

Closed shows being nominated, not so unusual. Closed shows winning for best musical: happened once 46 years ago, won't happen again. But nominated, sure.


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re: Won't even be nominated- yeah right sure.

Posted by: mikem 03:33 pm EDT 03/14/14
In reply to: Won't even be nominated- yeah right sure. - ShowGoer 12:56 pm EDT 03/14/14

Given how many new musicals there are this season, the season seems weak-ish. Based on current buzz, I would say the Best Musical nominees will be Gentlemen's Guide, After Midnight, If/Then, Bullets, and either Aladdin or Rocky, with Bridges having an outside chance.

But there's no musical so far that is both a critical AND commercial smash. Either If/Then or Bullets may end up hitting that combination and become the front-runner.


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Good analysis.

Posted by: ShowGoer 04:07 pm EDT 03/14/14
In reply to: re: Won't even be nominated- yeah right sure. - mikem 03:33 pm EDT 03/14/14

I think you're underestimating Beautiful's chances, but other than that I think you're spot on.

"But there's no musical so far that is both a critical AND commercial smash. Either If/Then or Bullets may end up hitting that combination and become the front-runner."

And that's exactly what will happen, is that one of those two will be.


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re: Good analysis.

Posted by: tpdc 12:44 pm EDT 03/15/14
In reply to: Good analysis. - ShowGoer 04:07 pm EDT 03/14/14

The nominating committee is usually tough and Beautiful though a hit is not even a barely passable jukebox show. Without Mueller it would be hard to sit through. In a season with so many new musicals with original books and scores, I don't think the nominators will fill three slots for best musical with shows without new scores. And If/Then and Bridges are much better shows than Beautiful.


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