Good question.
One problem is that the average revenue from a Broadway theater is unknowable. There are 35 commercial Broadway theaters, owned almost solely by the Nederlander Organization (8 theaters), Jujamcyn Theatres (6), and the Shubert Organization (17). The remaining commercial houses are the Helen Hayes owned by the Martin Markinson and Donald Tick families, Circle in the Square which began as a nfp but is now a commercial theater, and the Foxwood owned by the British company the Ambassador Theatre Group. The New Amsterdam is owned by the City of New York but is on a long-term, low priced lease to Disney. In essence, commercial Broadway theaters are owned and operated by just three entities.
Nederlander and Jujamcyn are closely-held corporations which do not publish annual reports or other measures of revenue, profitability, etc.
The Shubert Organization is a real rarity. It is a for-profit organization wholly owned by a nfp corporation, the Shubert Foundation. This is extremely rare and probably could be overturned in court but who would challenge the Shubert Organization? Again, these two interlocked entities publish no publicly available records of profitability. (The Shubert Foundation's nfp report to the IRS is available publicly, but it doesn't detail the real finances of the Shubert Organization. If you want to see the most recent available IRS report for the Shubert Organization, it is here: http://990s.foundationcenter.org/990pf_pdf_archive/136/136106961/136106961_201205_990PF.pdf)
The Shubert Organization doesn't need a tax write-off. It doesn't pay most taxes.
Without some notion of the revenues and risk of a new Broadway theater, no investor is tempted to build one. New York's newer Broadway houses exist because the City required a developer of a hotel or other larger structure to build a theater in that building to receive zoning exceptions or to replace theaters they tore down to build on the site. (Examples include The Marquis, the Gershwin, and the Sondheim.)
Also note that the Little Shubert is one seat shy of Broadway size on purpose. Add one seat and the Little Shubert is subject to Broadway contracts with higher minimum salaries and more expensive work rules.
By the way, the empty lot at 46th and 8th is owned by the Shubert Foundation. I have a good friend who mourns the loss of the Broadway Inn on that site before it was cleared. Don't know what's going up there but I'm pretty sure it's not a theater.
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