(Apologies in advance for typos. Typing this from my phone. No excuse, I know...)
I think TV and the internet is possibly playing a big factor here. I'm not talking about audience fragmentation and about easy, instant access to entertainment from any device -- though that clearly is a factor. It's no longer taboo or shameful to stay in with your significant other on a Friday or Saturday night to binge watch 'Mad Men' on demand or 'House of Cards' on Netflix.
However, what I'm talking about is expectations. I believe that TV and the internet have raised audiences' expectations about the quality they expect from their entertainment. Yes, of course there's still plenty of garbage on tv, but the last 15 years are widely seen as a true golden age in television drama -- it's the HBO effect. Mad Men, The Sopranos, The Wire, The Killing, Boardwalk Empire, House of Cards, The Fall, Breaking Bad, True Detective, Friday Night Lights, Game of Thrones, Justified, The Good Wife, Deadwood and on and on.
These shows have widespread critical acclaim; especially for their writing. They have rabid followings of young(ish) viewers. And after devouring this "event television" on a Sunday night, millions of us then go online on Monday morning to read the, quite literally, hundreds of blogs, reviews and messageboards dedicated to in-depth analysis of these Golden age tv dramas.
I believe that the widespread availability of exceptionally well written television shows and the democratization of critical analysis and appreciation, have made us more discerning audiences.
We know that musicals make up the majority of Broadway productions and are the most recognizable brand on the Great White Way. When you say, "let's go see a Broadway show" to the average American they're going to probably equate that with seeing a musical. And, unfortunately, if that illusive straight guy we keep talking about has been dragged to a musical by his ladyfriend in the past 5-10 years, chances are he's experienced something lackluster. Perhaps he got lucky and his lady took him to something well written, but the chances are just as good - if not greater- that he's experienced some bad writing on Broadway.
I'd wager that if you go back and look at major reviews for new Broadway musical productions from the past 10-15 years, the most frequently panned elements of the productions will not be the acting, directing or production design, but the writing -- lousy books, lackluster, uninspired or serviceable scores.
Today's audiences of 20-45 yr olds have spent the last 10-15 years experiencing easy access to the highest quality writing imaginable on their phones, ipads and flatscreen tvs. And, I think one experience of bad writing/poor structure in the theatre has the potential to turn off someone who could have, with some coaxing from his ladyfriend, been a lifelong theatregoer.
And to be clear, I think this will be a problem for younger generations of BOTH genders. As they continue to demand (and get) better work from their at-home entertainment, so will they expect this quality from all other forms of entertainment -- film, music, literature, and, yes, theatre. And if theatre can't supply writing as strong as 'Mad Men' or 'The Wire', well then HBO and AMC sure as heck will with their next batch of shows constantly in development.
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