Who is this "average Joe" and what musicals do you think he has heard of? Guys and Dolls? Fiddler? Hello Dolly? etc... yes, almost everyone has heard of the musicals from the Golden Age, from 40-60 years ago, that have had decades to become classics, performed everywhere, made into movies, etc etc.
The "average Joe" doesn't like or see musicals anyway...
But you know, the "average Joe" often has kids... and those kids, living in America, are very likely to perform or have a friend performing in, or just going to see at their school, someday a production of Into the Woods. So more than more musicals written after 1970, "Average Joe" might have heard of Into the Woods.
Jersey Boys is NOT a beloved show. Where are you getting this definition of "beloved"? A show can't be beloved until it's closed on Broadway and been performed elsewhere... and had a popular cast album, and had new generations find the show, and perform it all over... and been revived in several major productions. etc. Jersey Boys is an excellent juxbox musical that will probably have little life outside of it's hit Broadway production and flopped movie... but if it does surprise me and in 10-20 years it has a notable life outside of those two things, then I'd happily reconsider it as "beloved". And also, it doesn't not have musical familiar to "most people"... to an older crowd, yes... but to young people, even if they'd heard the songs (which they very well might have), they don't know who Franki Valli and the Four Seasons are and they certainly don't know what the title "Jersey Boys" indicated. And on top of that, the movie had no stars. Even for a popular musical, big budget hollywood movies these days almost always need stars for them to make money at the box office. Either that, or the interest of young ticket buyers. Jersey Boys had neither. Into the Woods has both, in theory.
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