I am surprised you describe this as a extremely good season. My general sense is that most people consider it an off year. From purely a Tony perspective, I think all of the choices have their fans (very enthusiastic ones) but they also all have shortcomings that keep them from being especially strong contenders. Hence the "anyone's guess" nature of a lot of the handicapping. The Visit is not selling tickets and is limping to the awards; it will have limited appeal hampering it even were it to win (which I think it will not because I think any sentiment for it can be satisfied by giving Chita an award, which I think may well happen.) Something Rotten has a lot of fans, but I agree with your comments about it and wonder if something that is that silly is going to feel like the show to bestow the award on. I think the odds are a bit better than you do. American in Paris which also has a lot of fans but the appeal is not well rounded-it is mostly related to the dancing as is its "artistry.". I think it is a derivative work, with exceptional execution, and that is compelling only to a subset. And Fun Home (my choice) is divisive and lacks broad appeal. It may have enough of a constituency to win, but it is not a foregone conclusion by any means. So does the crowd appeal/touring potential of Rotten or Paris prevail? or is it the artistry of Fun Home going to bring in enough votes? Or will it be the sentimental favorite that takes home the prize? As I said, I think it is anyone's guess, but whatever wins, I think it will end up being another Gent's Guide or Memphis, not another Book of Mormon. I think the future life of two of these shows will be hurt by the unique qualities of the Broadway stars (Visit and Paris), and two will have trouble finding an audience (Visit and Fun Home). I think Fun Home ends up in regional theatres, and I think Paris drifts away once the dancing becomes more earthbound. That leaves us with Rotten, and I think you are underestimating it. I still give the edge to Fun Home, but I think the general consensus on the season is that it was miss-able rather than extremely good.
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