My general perception is that most seasons, only 10-20 percent of shows recouped.
For a quick example, since I have a certain number of Best Plays volumes from the 1960s and 1970s, I looked at the volumes for 1964-1965 and for the following season, since the latter would list shows that opened the previous season that went on to recoup during the 1965-1966 season.
i did my best to eliminate shows that probably counted as nonprofit, which took the 81 shows listed as having been produced on Broadway during the 1964-65 season down to 54. (Yeah, that's probably a surprise, isn't it?)
Best Plays lists seven shows as having recouped by the end of the season. The following year's volume lists one more as having recouped later. Not listed that year is Half a Sixpence, which supposedly recouped thanks to revenue from the two post-Broadway tours. Perhaps Best Plays only counted shows that recouped during the Broadway run.
That makes eight out of 54. That is just under 15 percent.
One of those, Poor Richard, recouped only thanks to a film sale. Another, The Roar of the Greasepaint, would not have recouped had Merrick not done his long pre-Broadway tour thing that he did with several of the British musicals he produced during the 1960s (although Roar, unlike Oliver!, did not recoup before it even opened on Broadway).
There may have been a better record some other seasons, but still it seems to me that this 25-35 percent figure is rosy thinking about the Broadway of the past. My guess is that during most 1950s and 1960s Broadway seasons, less than 20 percent of the productions recouped. A season in which 20 percent of the shows recouped would have been considered fantastic financially.
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