Threaded Order Chronological Order
| What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| OK, so we all know the longest running Broadway musicals. Those that have reached the milestone of 5000 performances in its original run are (I think) Phantom, Chicago, Lion King, Cats, Les Mis, Chorus Line, Mamma Mia, Wicked and Rent. Book of Mormon is well on its way, and Hamilton will run as long as it wants. So I began to think, what turns a smash hit into this type of long running hit, and I had trouble finding the common ingredient or ingredients. Clearly, winning the Tony for Best Musical is non-predictive. Some are what are thought of as as "family shows" but others clearly aren't. So what ties these shows together? I wondered about this in the context of Dear Evan Hansen. Is this is show that has the potential of hitting the 5000 performance mark, or not? And why or why not? |
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| A Little Brains, A Little Talent. | |
| Posted by: TheOtherOne 07:14 am EDT 07/08/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Not to mention luck and alchemy. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: keikekaze 05:49 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Don't look for "common ingredients." All the great Broadway musical hits are unique--that's what makes them the great Broadway musical hits. Of course, they all have imitators afterwards, but the too obvious imitators tend to flop. In fact, being too much like some other recent Broadway hit is one of the things that can turn a good or goodish show into a flop, as the producers of Three Wishes For Jamie, Christine, or The Girl Who Came To Supper could tell you from experience. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: alvy_singer 03:31 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I think it helps to have a show that people come in humming the music (Jersey Boys, Mamma Mia) or at the very least a show that doesn't require English as a first language. | |
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| Originality. | |
| Last Edit: GrumpyMorningBoy 03:29 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| Posted by: GrumpyMorningBoy 03:28 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I still think I have damn good taste and could probably predict a long-running hit with just a read through and a piano. But I'm terribly over-confident. In addition to the smart comments others have offered below, I'd say that a huge hit needs to be genuinely original. It needs to look and feel like nothing we've seen before. It needs to not be too challenging to sit through. (It's pretty astonishing that LES MIZ's 3-hour running time doesn't fuck up its box office) It needs to not be reliant on a big name star in the title role. --- It's certainly true that having little-to-no language barrier hugely helps shows like CATS, CHICAGO & LION KING. Thematic 'safety' with high school & church groups also helps in a big way; that'll keep HAMILTON safe for a very very long time (and arguably kept RENT, HAIRSPRAY and AVENUE Q from playing longer). But if I were going to get formulaic, i would go for: - killer marketing - splashy visuals that aren't too expensive (more song & dance numbers, less helicopters) - very little language barrier - happy ending - downtrodden protagonist who rises to great heights (a 'cinderella story') - show-offy vocals that turn your big numbers into emotive solos that people belt across the USA And yet, look at how few of those components add up to give you HAMILTON, the most unlikely Broadway hit in two decades?!? Originality is where it's at, folks. And originality busts right through the formulas. - GMB |
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| re: Originality. | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 09:39 am EDT 07/07/17 | |
| In reply to: Originality. - GrumpyMorningBoy 03:28 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| Excellent points, and one comment regarding "killer marketing". I've noticed, and recently and especially with respect to Hamilton, that smash hits don't rest on their laurels regarding marketing/advertising. Sure, they have the cash to market like crazy, and they do, even when it's almost impossible to buy a ticket. I remember walking through Penn Station about a year ago and the walls and electronic ads were dominated by Hamilton posters. I've seen the same thing for Wicked and Book of Mormon. | |
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| re: Originality. | |
| Posted by: Carol2 (carolmusical@gmail.com) 09:19 am EDT 07/07/17 | |
| In reply to: Originality. - GrumpyMorningBoy 03:28 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| Smart points, GMB. Thanks for the thoughts. May I quote you? : ) Carol d.g. |
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| I used to be good at predicting when I was younger .... | |
| Posted by: jdm 10:10 am EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| but that talent disappeared! The beginning of the end of my prediction ability was after seeing Wicked in late previews and saying: this will close shortly. And finalized when I saw Something Rotten! in late previews and said : this will be a hard to get ticket for at least 5 years. I do not even try anymore! :-) Jim |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: Cainebj 10:28 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Tourism, spectacle and not having a language barrier - I think are 3 ingredients. I do not think Dear Evan Hanson will be a long running mega hit. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: KingSpeed 11:57 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - Cainebj 10:28 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I agree in some cases. But what about A Chorus Line? No spectacle and there is a language barrier. I think it's in the category of Mormon and Hamilton, shows that got such high praise, that is simply takes a long time for everyone who wants to see it to see it. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: Cainebj 08:45 am EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - KingSpeed 11:57 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I should have added - a focus on dance/big dance numbers - I can imagine that all the dancing in A Chorus Line would still be a big draw for tourists where English is not their first language. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 10:45 am EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - Cainebj 08:45 am EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| If there is enough singing and/or dancing in a show (and it's good) it is basically like going to the opera or ballet. And some of those listed shows even provide simultaneous translation. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: Chromolume 02:32 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - ryhog 10:45 am EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| And some of those listed shows even provide simultaneous translation. Do they provide an English translation for Phantom? (Sorry...kidding...but had to go there...) ;-) |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 02:50 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - Chromolume 02:32 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| They provide translation into all languages known to the human ear simultaneously, through the same earpiece, because Phantom is universal. (I didn't think I'd have to explain that to you.) | |
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| By treating sodium nitrate with potassium chloride, of course! | |
| Posted by: showtunetrivia 10:00 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| No, wait, you need that for a bomb, not a hit. Laura, who clearly has a certain musical stuck in her head |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: sirpupnyc 08:29 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| If there were a recipe, every show would run for years. What's right for one show at one moment is all wrong for another. Take a dozen shows that tapped into a long-run audience and examine how they did it and you'll have a dozen different stories. Try to reenact each one with a new show and you'll have a dozen flops (OK, maybe only eleven). Even ryhog's "good producing and good marketing," which is probably a better answer than most, encompasses a zillion details that will be different for every show. (Strong producing, maybe...do/did they all have someone experienced really ultimately in charge? But that's still no guarantee.) |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 09:46 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - sirpupnyc 08:29 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| my answer was a big fat cheat, for the reason you highlight. I'd add that what I said was that these were ingredients in hits, not that they guaranteed a hit. (That would be ridiculous.) No good producer is always successful. I think there has to be someone experienced and I think if you look at the successful producers, you'll see that they started watching and learning from below (not as investors who think they gained experience from above). But what they do is not copy because as you say copying usually fails. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 09:25 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - sirpupnyc 08:29 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| All true, but the question remains as to DEH. Clearly it's a smash hit, but will it run for another two or three years, or will it run for 5000 performances or so? Obviously only time will tell for sure. But is there anyway to look at the shows that have reached that mark and use anything about them to make a prediction? If there is, I have no idea what it is, which is why I'm asking the experts on this board. I'd actually love to hear arguments as to why it will and why it won't. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: keikekaze 06:24 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 09:25 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I tend to think that it won't. I give Evan about four to five years, which will be a nice, long profitable run. Because eight or ten shows have now reached the 5,000-performance mark on Broadway, people have started to believe that that kind of run is much easier to achieve than it really is. In fact, the great majority of those super-runs were achieved by shows that opened in the late 20th century, when money was floating around among the general population much more freely than it is now, and when ticket prices were also half what they are now, or less. Since the "great recession" of 2008-- , only two shows have yet opened on Broadway with any chance of reaching 5,000, and those two are, of course, The Book of Mormon and Hamilton. Both of those shows, I think, got even better across-the-board reviews than Evan, and have other things going for them besides. The former has the national and international "South Park" fan base from TV and the movies, and the latter is a national and international cultural phenomenon that got out of the entertainment-section ghetto and onto the editorial pages and even the front pages of all media. I don't really see what would give Evan a 12-year run, and I remember the "irrational exuberance" of the people who thought that Billy Elliot and Matilda too were going to run for a decade or more. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 11:08 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - keikekaze 06:24 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| Yes, I agree that a run of 3-5 years is the most likely course for DEH for many of these stated reasons, and I'm sure that the producers will be very happy with this outcome. But, part of me wonders whether this show might be the exception to the general rules. While as someone said, and I agree, that future changes in social media might make the show appear dated, there is still something about this story that is striking an emotional chord with teens and their parents. And that audience is being constantly replenished. So I wonder, won't kids who are 10 now want to see it in 5 years? And sure, it will be touring by then, but what is going to happen to significantly reduce its demand? I'm part of the school that doesn't think it's the Ben Platt show, but we'll know more about that in six months. Again, intellectually I agree with everyone else that it won't be a super long running show, but I'm just not certain of it. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: keikekaze 11:39 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 11:08 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| Well, it's perfectly possible that you're right, and the rest of us will all be surprised! Time will tell. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 11:59 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - keikekaze 11:39 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| No, I'm not predicting that at all. I tried to make that clear. I agree with you and those who predict about a 3-4 year run. I'm just wondering if this show could surprise and run much longer, and only tried to articulate a possible reason why it might. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: GrumpyMorningBoy 07:56 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - keikekaze 06:24 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| I fully concur with all this. I think DEAR EVAN HANSEN will run about three, three and a half years. Without the Tony, I think its run would have looked a lot like NEXT TO NORMAL or SPRING AWAKENING, roughly a 2 year healthy run. I think the Tony added another year. Personally, I think that the over-the-top pull quotes for BOOK OF MORMON help it out in a huge way, but the cast recording has sold surprisingly well. If it can manage to pull off a screen adaptation, it'll extend that run even further. - GMB |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 09:00 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - GrumpyMorningBoy 07:56 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| you've put DEH in the right basket. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 10:08 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 09:25 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| My guess is that it will not. I'd be happy to be wrong. I think it is too small, and one common thing about the super long runs (as opposed to the very healthy runs) is that they are not small. Another factor may be that I am not convinced it can be appreciated by people who are not able to follow it because there is no spectacle. That seems to be another characteristic of the super long runs, no? (A side bar to this point: Comet. Here I think we have an example of a show that has all of the attributes of a long running show except it lacks the producing and marketing.) | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Last Edit: KingSpeed 11:59 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| Posted by: KingSpeed 11:58 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - ryhog 10:08 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I think DEH could become dated because it's so of its time. I don't know what new technology is coming around the corner but it could make even DEH a look old fashioned. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 10:58 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - ryhog 10:08 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Interesting, and I think you've hit on something. Though Chorus Line and Rent can be done "small" and don't have the spectacle of the others that have hit the 5000 mark, they each have that sine qua non that makes you think of them as large. With A Chorus Line, maybe it's the dancing, which is non existent in DEH. I don't remember Rent well enough to figure out what the magic sauce might have been. I have no idea how DEH is resonating with foreign tourists. It's an interesting question. And the sample to date is probably far too small to draw any conclusions. |
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| Iconic logo design | |
| Posted by: richmurphy 07:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| That may seem facetious, but it's not that far removed from ryhog's comment about great marketing being a key factor. Once an advertising image is seared into the general public's consciousness for several years, that image alone can continue to attract the infrequent theatergoer or tourist. | |
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| I agree with this. nm | |
| Posted by: KingSpeed 11:51 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: Iconic logo design - richmurphy 07:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 07:33 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| as I am fond of saying, there are no rules. But the recipe has to have at least 2 ingredients I think-great producing and great marketing (not entirely separate, obviously). Beyond that, good material doesn't hurt, but your list admits of at least one exception to that rule. I think another interesting way to look at this is to focus on the word "icon" and ruminate on the different paths these shows took to becoming iconic. What is/are the icon(s)? and how did they get that way? | |
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| If there was an answer to your question | |
| Posted by: dramedy 07:06 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Then there would not be any flops. For super long runs, it does have to cross over to tourist trade and probably not too american cliché (as in local references and jokes that just dont translate well) so foreigners will get it. Phantom is amazing how it still brings in $1M/wk almost all year. so i dont think hansen will be around for more than a few years, which is a respectable run. As for hamilton, i dont understand the hype at all but clearly it will play a decade. |
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| re: If there was an answer to your question | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 07:19 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: If there was an answer to your question - dramedy 07:06 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I don't think that's necessarily correct. What you're saying applies to what I called smash hits, and obviously, there is no one recipe for those, because if there were you'd be right--there wouldn't be any flops. But the question is what turns those hits into the very long running hits. I do agree that they can't be, as you say, "too American" which is a good insight. Except for Hamilton. 😊 Can't get too much more American than that. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: PurpleMoney 06:11 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Remove Chicago and add Beauty And The Beast. Chicago is a revival. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: Chromolume 07:24 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - PurpleMoney 06:11 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Chicago is a revival. I don't see what that distinction has to do with the conversation at hand. Much of what is in the stage production of Beauty And The Beast, hit songs included, was already in the film. I'm not going to try to call it a revival obviously, but I daresay that the animated musical version of Beauty was MUCH more popular than the original production of Chicago. So I don't really think you can make the argument to exclude one over the other, based on what came before their current productions. But as I said, I don't think this has anything to do with the discussion. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 07:35 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - Chromolume 07:24 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| well the OP said original so one might say that is the conversation at hand, but I agree with you it is not a very valuable distinction. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: Chromolume 08:10 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - ryhog 07:35 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Ugh - you're right. Somehow that word went right by me in the original (no pun intended) post. But I agree - in this case I don't think it's all that important. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 06:30 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - PurpleMoney 06:11 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Yes, the original production ran for "only" 936 performances and it's the revival that's been up since 1996. But that doesn't answer the essential question. | |
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