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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: sirpupnyc 08:29 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 05:50 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| If there were a recipe, every show would run for years. What's right for one show at one moment is all wrong for another. Take a dozen shows that tapped into a long-run audience and examine how they did it and you'll have a dozen different stories. Try to reenact each one with a new show and you'll have a dozen flops (OK, maybe only eleven). Even ryhog's "good producing and good marketing," which is probably a better answer than most, encompasses a zillion details that will be different for every show. (Strong producing, maybe...do/did they all have someone experienced really ultimately in charge? But that's still no guarantee.) |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 09:46 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - sirpupnyc 08:29 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| my answer was a big fat cheat, for the reason you highlight. I'd add that what I said was that these were ingredients in hits, not that they guaranteed a hit. (That would be ridiculous.) No good producer is always successful. I think there has to be someone experienced and I think if you look at the successful producers, you'll see that they started watching and learning from below (not as investors who think they gained experience from above). But what they do is not copy because as you say copying usually fails. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 09:25 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - sirpupnyc 08:29 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| All true, but the question remains as to DEH. Clearly it's a smash hit, but will it run for another two or three years, or will it run for 5000 performances or so? Obviously only time will tell for sure. But is there anyway to look at the shows that have reached that mark and use anything about them to make a prediction? If there is, I have no idea what it is, which is why I'm asking the experts on this board. I'd actually love to hear arguments as to why it will and why it won't. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: keikekaze 06:24 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 09:25 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I tend to think that it won't. I give Evan about four to five years, which will be a nice, long profitable run. Because eight or ten shows have now reached the 5,000-performance mark on Broadway, people have started to believe that that kind of run is much easier to achieve than it really is. In fact, the great majority of those super-runs were achieved by shows that opened in the late 20th century, when money was floating around among the general population much more freely than it is now, and when ticket prices were also half what they are now, or less. Since the "great recession" of 2008-- , only two shows have yet opened on Broadway with any chance of reaching 5,000, and those two are, of course, The Book of Mormon and Hamilton. Both of those shows, I think, got even better across-the-board reviews than Evan, and have other things going for them besides. The former has the national and international "South Park" fan base from TV and the movies, and the latter is a national and international cultural phenomenon that got out of the entertainment-section ghetto and onto the editorial pages and even the front pages of all media. I don't really see what would give Evan a 12-year run, and I remember the "irrational exuberance" of the people who thought that Billy Elliot and Matilda too were going to run for a decade or more. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 11:08 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - keikekaze 06:24 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| Yes, I agree that a run of 3-5 years is the most likely course for DEH for many of these stated reasons, and I'm sure that the producers will be very happy with this outcome. But, part of me wonders whether this show might be the exception to the general rules. While as someone said, and I agree, that future changes in social media might make the show appear dated, there is still something about this story that is striking an emotional chord with teens and their parents. And that audience is being constantly replenished. So I wonder, won't kids who are 10 now want to see it in 5 years? And sure, it will be touring by then, but what is going to happen to significantly reduce its demand? I'm part of the school that doesn't think it's the Ben Platt show, but we'll know more about that in six months. Again, intellectually I agree with everyone else that it won't be a super long running show, but I'm just not certain of it. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: keikekaze 11:39 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 11:08 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| Well, it's perfectly possible that you're right, and the rest of us will all be surprised! Time will tell. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 11:59 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - keikekaze 11:39 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| No, I'm not predicting that at all. I tried to make that clear. I agree with you and those who predict about a 3-4 year run. I'm just wondering if this show could surprise and run much longer, and only tried to articulate a possible reason why it might. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: GrumpyMorningBoy 07:56 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - keikekaze 06:24 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| I fully concur with all this. I think DEAR EVAN HANSEN will run about three, three and a half years. Without the Tony, I think its run would have looked a lot like NEXT TO NORMAL or SPRING AWAKENING, roughly a 2 year healthy run. I think the Tony added another year. Personally, I think that the over-the-top pull quotes for BOOK OF MORMON help it out in a huge way, but the cast recording has sold surprisingly well. If it can manage to pull off a screen adaptation, it'll extend that run even further. - GMB |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 09:00 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - GrumpyMorningBoy 07:56 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| you've put DEH in the right basket. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 10:08 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 09:25 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| My guess is that it will not. I'd be happy to be wrong. I think it is too small, and one common thing about the super long runs (as opposed to the very healthy runs) is that they are not small. Another factor may be that I am not convinced it can be appreciated by people who are not able to follow it because there is no spectacle. That seems to be another characteristic of the super long runs, no? (A side bar to this point: Comet. Here I think we have an example of a show that has all of the attributes of a long running show except it lacks the producing and marketing.) | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Last Edit: KingSpeed 11:59 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| Posted by: KingSpeed 11:58 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - ryhog 10:08 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I think DEH could become dated because it's so of its time. I don't know what new technology is coming around the corner but it could make even DEH a look old fashioned. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 10:58 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - ryhog 10:08 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| Interesting, and I think you've hit on something. Though Chorus Line and Rent can be done "small" and don't have the spectacle of the others that have hit the 5000 mark, they each have that sine qua non that makes you think of them as large. With A Chorus Line, maybe it's the dancing, which is non existent in DEH. I don't remember Rent well enough to figure out what the magic sauce might have been. I have no idea how DEH is resonating with foreign tourists. It's an interesting question. And the sample to date is probably far too small to draw any conclusions. |
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