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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: keikekaze 06:24 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 09:25 pm EDT 07/05/17 | |
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| I tend to think that it won't. I give Evan about four to five years, which will be a nice, long profitable run. Because eight or ten shows have now reached the 5,000-performance mark on Broadway, people have started to believe that that kind of run is much easier to achieve than it really is. In fact, the great majority of those super-runs were achieved by shows that opened in the late 20th century, when money was floating around among the general population much more freely than it is now, and when ticket prices were also half what they are now, or less. Since the "great recession" of 2008-- , only two shows have yet opened on Broadway with any chance of reaching 5,000, and those two are, of course, The Book of Mormon and Hamilton. Both of those shows, I think, got even better across-the-board reviews than Evan, and have other things going for them besides. The former has the national and international "South Park" fan base from TV and the movies, and the latter is a national and international cultural phenomenon that got out of the entertainment-section ghetto and onto the editorial pages and even the front pages of all media. I don't really see what would give Evan a 12-year run, and I remember the "irrational exuberance" of the people who thought that Billy Elliot and Matilda too were going to run for a decade or more. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 11:08 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - keikekaze 06:24 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| Yes, I agree that a run of 3-5 years is the most likely course for DEH for many of these stated reasons, and I'm sure that the producers will be very happy with this outcome. But, part of me wonders whether this show might be the exception to the general rules. While as someone said, and I agree, that future changes in social media might make the show appear dated, there is still something about this story that is striking an emotional chord with teens and their parents. And that audience is being constantly replenished. So I wonder, won't kids who are 10 now want to see it in 5 years? And sure, it will be touring by then, but what is going to happen to significantly reduce its demand? I'm part of the school that doesn't think it's the Ben Platt show, but we'll know more about that in six months. Again, intellectually I agree with everyone else that it won't be a super long running show, but I'm just not certain of it. |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: keikekaze 11:39 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - broadwaybacker 11:08 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| Well, it's perfectly possible that you're right, and the rest of us will all be surprised! Time will tell. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 11:59 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - keikekaze 11:39 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| No, I'm not predicting that at all. I tried to make that clear. I agree with you and those who predict about a 3-4 year run. I'm just wondering if this show could surprise and run much longer, and only tried to articulate a possible reason why it might. | |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: GrumpyMorningBoy 07:56 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - keikekaze 06:24 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| I fully concur with all this. I think DEAR EVAN HANSEN will run about three, three and a half years. Without the Tony, I think its run would have looked a lot like NEXT TO NORMAL or SPRING AWAKENING, roughly a 2 year healthy run. I think the Tony added another year. Personally, I think that the over-the-top pull quotes for BOOK OF MORMON help it out in a huge way, but the cast recording has sold surprisingly well. If it can manage to pull off a screen adaptation, it'll extend that run even further. - GMB |
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| re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 09:00 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
| In reply to: re: What are the ingredients that turn a smash hit into a long running hit? - GrumpyMorningBoy 07:56 pm EDT 07/06/17 | |
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| you've put DEH in the right basket. | |
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