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| Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: SubtitlesPlease 01:03 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| It's loved by both audiences and critics but why isn't the show doing well commercially? Its up on the TKTS boards regularly and on TDF when i last checked. And whats the break even for the show and how long do you think it will last? Doesn't seem like it costs much though. Thoughts? | |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: Michael_Portantiere 07:06 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
| In reply to: Once On This Island - breaking even? - SubtitlesPlease 01:03 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| One short, at lest partial, answer: Because even the best, most well reviewed production of a really great show, like this one, is likely to fail commercially if the title is not a "brand" and there are no big stars in the show. OF COURSE there are exceptions, especially among some few new shows, like THE BAND'S VISIT, DEAR EVAN HANSEN, and COME FROM AWAY. But they are still exceptions. A sad state of affairs. | |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 07:15 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
| In reply to: re: Once On This Island - breaking even? - Michael_Portantiere 07:06 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| That's a lot of important exceptions, MP. I think you have to create interest in your show, just as you would if you were selling widgits. Build it and they will come doesn't work in the theatre very often. | |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: NewtonUK 10:50 am EST 01/13/18 | |
| In reply to: re: Once On This Island - breaking even? - ryhog 07:15 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| Plus - word of mouth is not actually as strong as one would think. WOM is crucial. | |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 11:17 am EST 01/13/18 | |
| In reply to: re: Once On This Island - breaking even? - NewtonUK 10:50 am EST 01/13/18 | |
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| Yes, it's apparent that it is not, because if it were, this would be a must-see, and if it was a must-see, there would be premium demand and this show would succeed. But that's in the nature of a pipe dream here. Even if the show is breaking even, there is really no path to recoupment at this point, and once the spring competition arrives (taking away not only audience but the attention it could expect with a slower opening to build audience), my guess is it would be in a tail spin. One other point regarding timing. Davenport seems to specialize in bottom feeding for theatres. He got this one at a time there was low demand, in a scenario (similar to Spring Awakening) in which a quick close would give the landlord a window for a new tenant before the cutoff. (I have no idea how this plays out, except if it recoups, I'll buy everyone here tickets to the Tonys.) | |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: Michael_Portantiere 08:24 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
| In reply to: re: Once On This Island - breaking even? - ryhog 11:17 am EST 01/13/18 | |
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| I've always felt that how good or bad "word of mouth" on a show may be is very difficult to judge. I myself adored this production of ONCE ON THIS ISLAND, but aside from that, I have heard nothing but extremely positive word of mouth from everyone I know who has seen it. So, I guess it depends at least partly on whom you talk to :-) | |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 08:46 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
| In reply to: re: Once On This Island - breaking even? - Michael_Portantiere 08:24 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
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| My sense is that the show has not received bad word of mouth but that its positive word of mouth has not been emphatic enough to make this a "must see" beyond the usual suspects (us included and, in your case at least, everyone you talk to). That's a marketing failure superficially, but at the core it is a producing failure because I don't appreciate that there was ever a clear path to making this the must-see that, esp at Circle, it has to be to have a chance to succeed. And I must say that the comparison to the Spring Awakening revival seems apt. I don't believe this proves that you have to have a star or a brand name title, as you suggest elsewhere, because we have too many examples of successful shows that don't. (Not to mention shows with stars or titles that fail.) But you have to have something, and this didn't. Can you point to any marketing that would prompt someone to buy tickets because it is a show that can't be missed? | |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: Michael_Portantiere 11:27 am EST 01/14/18 | |
| In reply to: re: Once On This Island - breaking even? - ryhog 08:46 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
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| "Can you point to any marketing that would prompt someone to buy tickets because it is a show that can't be missed?" Not specifically. If a show doesn't have a major star in it, and if the title is not a brand name, I would think the best way to market it is to make it very clear what the story of show is, and to quote reviews stating that it must be seen because of the quality of the show itself and the overall production. Do you feel that the creative concept of this specific production -- the story being told in the context of the aftermath of a recent hurricane, with a pre-show that includes actors interacting with the audience -- has been made clear in the marketing, and if not, would doing so have helped make this a must-see? Has it been made clear that ONCE ON THIS ISLAND was written by the people who gave us RAGTIME, SEUSSICAL, and ANASTASIA, and would it have helped to stress this fact more? |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 12:17 pm EST 01/14/18 | |
| In reply to: re: Once On This Island - breaking even? - Michael_Portantiere 11:27 am EST 01/14/18 | |
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| I don't, and I agree that those ideas *might* have helped. But we have to be at least a little humble about it because it's the theatre and there is alchemy involved. (See, e.g., Come From Away.) What we can say without over-stating our case is that you have to do *something* to get people excited or at least interested, and I don't see that that happened. The dirty little secret about social media is that you can have the greatest media pitch on earth, but that does not automatically take care of the social part of it. A tree that falls in the forest etc etc. I don't think this is an easy sale (even if you can't imagine why everyone would not rush to see it :-) ) and deep down I think (as I said in some earlier post I think) this is more in the nature of a non-profit production. I think I said the same thing about Spring Awakening, and if Hello Dolly had come to Broadway with even someone like Donna Murphy, I think it would be looking a lot like OOTI. I am not a fan of revivals on commercial Broadway, but I think it is fair to say that if you are going to do one, you need someone who will sell tickets. I actually don't think the data supports brand name (i.e., a movie) as a seller. We've had plenty of flop musical revivals that had been movies at some point. You need SOMETHING to capture the imagination. (A slightly different version of all this is The Great Comet which, despite a ticket-bait star, did not sell out. That also failed to convincingly market its excitement.) So in the end of course we don't know. Sometimes things are doomed from the outset. Producers fall in love with an idea but don't think it through. So it fails for the reason that was not confronted. Here, however, I'd say they did not seem to give it their best effort; they just thought (as I've said) if they built it folks would come. Never wise. |
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| i'm surprised it is not selling out | |
| Posted by: dramedy 06:11 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
| In reply to: Once On This Island - breaking even? - SubtitlesPlease 01:03 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| in such a small theater. I rarely find a revival better than the original, and this revival is. | |
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| re: i'm surprised it is not selling out | |
| Posted by: mikem 06:17 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
| In reply to: i'm surprised it is not selling out - dramedy 06:11 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| My understanding is that the show isn't using discount codes at all. I find it strange when struggling shows don't use discount codes. I'm sure the philosophy is to have a smaller number of people pay more money each, but I can't recall any struggling show that stopped discount codes for which it worked out. | |
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| re: i'm surprised it is not selling out | |
| Posted by: ryhog 06:43 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
| In reply to: re: i'm surprised it is not selling out - mikem 06:17 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| If you run the numbers at Circle, for this show, you'll discover that the only way it succeeds is by having high demand leading to sell outs and ideally premium tickets. That didn't happen here, and not a single seasoned producer thought it could or would. So we are left with a theory in search of an audience and the result is breathtakingly inept. But the track record remains intact. "Those who can, do; those who can't, teach; those who can't teach, preach." |
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| re: i'm surprised it is not selling out | |
| Posted by: Delvino 07:57 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
| In reply to: re: i'm surprised it is not selling out - ryhog 06:43 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| The reviews were extraordinarily good. But it's not material inspiring a hue and a cry for revival, no matter how inventive or superior to the original. It's perfectly housed in Circle, but these numbers remind us: it would be failing at the Booth, wouldn't it? | |
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| re: i'm surprised it is not selling out | |
| Posted by: ryhog 08:55 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
| In reply to: re: i'm surprised it is not selling out - Delvino 07:57 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
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| Most likely. There just isn't/wasn't any mojo for this. It feels like something that should have been a non-profit revival, if anything. | |
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| re: i'm surprised it is not selling out | |
| Posted by: Michael_Portantiere 11:56 am EST 01/20/18 | |
| In reply to: re: i'm surprised it is not selling out - ryhog 08:55 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
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| "It feels like something that should have been a non-profit revival, if anything." In retrospect, sure. But one never knows, does one? Although it does seem difficult for musicals to break even, let alone make a profit, at Circle in the Square. |
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| re: i'm surprised it is not selling out | |
| Posted by: Michael_Portantiere 08:26 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
| In reply to: re: i'm surprised it is not selling out - Delvino 07:57 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
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| I think this wonderful, beautiful, exemplary production of ONCE ON THIS ISLAND would be selling out if the musical had ever been made into a successful movie and/or if there were at least once major star in the cast. Sad but true, because it should not come down to that. | |
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| This is depressing. | |
| Posted by: GrumpyMorningBoy 11:17 am EST 01/14/18 | |
| In reply to: re: i'm surprised it is not selling out - Michael_Portantiere 08:26 pm EST 01/13/18 | |
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| One of the best revivals I've ever seen. Did THE COLOR PURPLE's revival need Jennifer Hudson to sell tickets, before Cynthia Erivo became a star in her own right? Even with a well-known entity like that, i think we'd all agree that yeah, it did. And yet, what a different show this production would be if there happened to be one big 'star' in the cast just to sell tickets. Even someone like Lea Salonga blends so seamlessly into the ensemble, and that ensemble energy is what makes the entire work so pleasant. I won't predict the future, but I will admit that I saw a LOT of online / social media marketing for this. A LOT. What's missing is the HAMILTON-level viral video buzz that gets shared and passed around the internet. not that they didn't try... See the videos below. And the depressingly low number of views & likes. - GMB |
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| Link | Youtube Channel: ONCE ON THIS ISLAND |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: student_rush 02:02 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
| In reply to: Once On This Island - breaking even? - SubtitlesPlease 01:03 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| I don't know who thought there was an adequate demand for this show to mount it on Broadway. Aside from kids who did the show in middle school, who is the target audience for this? It isn't a particularly famous or well-known piece, and without stars, the glowing reviews will only take them so far. | |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: NewtonUK 01:21 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
| In reply to: Once On This Island - breaking even? - SubtitlesPlease 01:03 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| The average adjusted Gross for the first 9 weeks is $480,000. I would imagine that with a cast of 18, a 5 piece orchestra, and a crew that includes two follow spot operators, that at the least their weekly costs are around $500,000. So they have been skirting with break even weeks so far, without returning any investment to date. |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 02:36 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
| In reply to: re: Once On This Island - breaking even? - NewtonUK 01:21 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| I had heard "high 4's" for the nut. Regardless, there is no happiness for the investors in this, even if they were to manage a bit of shaving off that (not likely without cutting back on marketing which would be suicidal), or to maintain the current grosses through the winter. I say stick a fork in it. | |
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| re: Once On This Island - breaking even? | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 01:48 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
| In reply to: re: Once On This Island - breaking even? - NewtonUK 01:21 pm EST 01/12/18 | |
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| Right. And just to emphasize a sometimes misunderstood point, if a show does no better than “break even” during its run, investors will lose 100% of their investment. | |
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