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Could be a long haul
Last Edit: Someday 01:50 pm EDT 03/19/20
Posted by: Someday 01:44 pm EDT 03/19/20
In reply to: re: "We do have to hope that tourists don’t bring the virus back into the city" - young-walsingham 01:17 pm EDT 03/19/20

The study from Imperial College London that *finally* got the President's attention suggests what may be called for are intermittent lockdown periods. To work, they'd continue until a vaccine is complete and distributed, so through November... of 2021. If you care to look at the report, see pages 11 and 12 at the attached link (or read the whole thing if you don't want to sleep tonight). A caveat that this report is focused mostly on Great Britain, although relevant to the U.S. as well.

In the worst-case scenario we're too far gone for on/off periods of social distancing to save the lives they otherwise could have, and an Italy-style overwhelming of ICUs and the rationing of ventilators may be imminent. Even so, long-term periods of shelter-in-place orders and isolation may become a thing. Needless to say, this plan would make theater rehearsal, production, and attendance very difficult.

This scenario is not yet on most people's radar and I have not yet heard it being widely discussed. But my guess is it's a real possibility if we start hearing about large numbers of patients dying here due to a lack of ventilators.

Sorry to be so dire, but I'm trying to adjust my expectations for what could be a long haul.

In more upbeat news, I'm thrilled about Equity's new streaming agreement (see different thread, above), and I hope there's a way to make the most of it without casts and crews getting sick. Maybe Equity can arrange a novel agreement to stream previously captured material, whatever exists? Maybe the Hamilton film comes out early? I know there's "no way" the TOFT collection at the Library for Performing Arts can ever leave the building in any form... but could desperate times even prompt some isolated renegotiations on that front?

Stay safe, friends!
Link Imperial College London report: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
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