| re: No, you're not | |
| Posted by: Singapore/Fling 11:16 pm EDT 07/06/20 | |
| In reply to: re: No, you're not - KingSpeed 10:25 pm EDT 07/06/20 | |
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| One of the problems here is that the metric of "the weekend" is meaningless. That's a way of thinking that is tied to an old, or at least on hold, business model. Mockingbird has pointed out that this only tells us who downloaded the app for Android or iOS over the past three days, which does not relate to how many people have signed up for a paid Disney+ subscription over the past month. So your reading of $3.5 million is only about a specific slice of people, and we don't know the significance of the number. Nor do we know how many people who might have canceled a subscription to Disney+ kept it going in order to see "Hamilton" this month. Nor do we know how many people who signed up for "Hamilton" will keep their subscriptions active because they like the other content on the site - or because they want to watch "Hamilton" again at some point (as of right now, the film isn't available to buy). Nor can you discount how much publicity Disney+ is getting for their platform by having "Hamilton" on it - especially at a time when their original content is being delayed due to the virus, having a reason to keep Disney+ in the media and getting people to talk about it (like we are now) is priceless. Nor do we know what "Hamilton" will mean for Disney+ going forward. Buying the film rights for $75 million makes no sense if their goal was to earn that back from movie theaters - the film would have had to do Marvel numbers to justify that price tag and the resulting marketing, which seems unlikely. Unless Disney is just being insane - and that's a possibility - they likely have a long-term vision of what "Hamilton" means for the platform. They're almost certainly considering this to be a property that keeps driving subscriptions going forward, perhaps with the dream that watching "Hamilton" on Disney+ becomes a rite of passage akin to watching "The Sound of Music" or "The Wizard of Oz". And unless they decide to start selling the film as a digital download or physical entity, the only way to watch it will be through Disney+. You just can't break down the success of this film by the old metric of first weekend. It makes no sense. And that's why your calculations may be accurate, but they can't tell us anything more than what some people with some mobile devices did on three days of this past week. |
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