"And that’s why I’ll be surprised if anyone will need to put their tickets up on StubHub. If there’s a vaccine, the show will go on and audiences will attend. If there isn’t, either it’ll be canceled, or postponed again, or Telecharge will be issuing the same refunds they did, to anyone who asked, in the weeks last spring before Broadway closed down."
I think you are confusing two separate issues. If the virus is still a threat, yes of course there will be refunds. But if there is a vaccine or other treatment that gets New York to a place that theatres can reopen without social distancing, then there is still the problem of a great many people who will not be prepared to return (whether because they lost their income, they are holding off on getting the vaccine for whatever reason, airfares are too high, etc etc etc). And I suggested that a depressed Stubhub market could materialize as a result.
And I am willing to bet you a pair of house seats to The Music Man that, in that scenario, Scott Rudin is not going to give Dramedy his money back if he has a ticket and decides to take a wait and see attitude toward the vaccine.