there are very few times that a big musical is waiting for a theater to open up. Winter Garden is one of the rare recent times when Music Man booked the theater when Beetlejuice was doing poorly. ONly when business picked up did there seem to be an issue of having Beetlejuice move. Did Lightning Thief really need to come to broadway to flop? i think your assumption is flawed that just because a theater is vacant it will be filled by a show waiting for a theater. There are long periods of even a year where a theater is dark between shows. I can't think of any show that didn't eventually get a theater. And of the 10 or so musicals that open in a season, i'd say half should not even have been funded in the first place.