I agree.
First of all, any idea that Broadway is coming back in a big way in the coming year is off-base. I expect we will end up with roughly a half down shows total, not including some of the evergreens. Then maybe the same number in the spring of 22. There are a bunch of people itching to get to work on their shows, but the mid-range calculation is that tourism is going to be slow even if we get robust vaccination going. Bringing back old shows is not a very good formula for getting locals in your seats at critical mass levels. So that weighs in favor of new shows and original scores (which I am taking to mean non-jukebox). The city tourism people said 2025. So we will lose the marginal shows and, for a while, the tourist-only shows. There are a lot of people putting up a brave face are actually in wait-and-see mode, and a lot of them will stay there a long time. |