For an event that broadway is open for business. I think it will be when several big shows have firm start dates with rehearsal plans in place. My guess (and hope) is late spring or early summer. But if shows don’t start until 2022, then it probably won’t be until fall or even winter 2022.
I have no inside knowledge on this. I think it was a mistake to wait this long but I assume the tonys have an agenda that includes publicity and probably funding from producers for the event. I am happy that they did cut off the season instead of continuing the season into 2022.