Threaded Order Chronological Order
| re: I’d be surprised if it wasn’t. | |
| Posted by: KingSpeed 01:27 am EST 02/11/21 | |
| In reply to: I’d be surprised if it wasn’t. - dramedy 11:01 pm EST 02/10/21 | |
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| I hope so. I was looking forward to seeing it. I feel bad for the child actors. They likely will have to be recast. Is Doubtfire a sure thing, though? I thing producers won't want to take many risks out of the gate. | |
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| re: I’d be surprised if it wasn’t. | |
| Posted by: ryhog 08:49 am EST 02/11/21 | |
| In reply to: re: I’d be surprised if it wasn’t. - KingSpeed 01:27 am EST 02/11/21 | |
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| I do not think it is a sure thing, and I certainly do not think it will appear out of the gate, unless you have a very different definition of that than mine. (Mine being when shows first start reopening which I believe will be late Fall.) Could it open in the Spring? Maybe, and perhaps I am skeptical, but I never sensed this as a sure thing last March when it (barely) started previews and I also suspect that this show will be a slow seller to local audiences. If you accept my notion that we will see a half dozen shows in the late Fall (maybe half musicals) and the same or maybe a few more in the Spring, then there are lots of theatres that one can sit in and wait this out, or at least wait and see, at a relatively low risk. The gravest risk for the 21-22 season is that too many shows open and dilute the diminished audience. | |
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| I’m a little more optimistic than you | |
| Posted by: dramedy 11:38 am EST 02/11/21 | |
| In reply to: re: I’d be surprised if it wasn’t. - ryhog 08:49 am EST 02/11/21 | |
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| I think we have to split shows into two categories—tourist vs local. Local will be first although lion king Hamilton and wicked might start in the fall just because they have the reserve funds to do so and can take reduced audience showing up. I think music man is the timeline that is realistic. Start in December and open in Jan feb for new shows. I can see six and jagged little pill and west side story. Then March April start for a lot more. I wouldn’t be surprised if tony 21/22 cutoff is pushed to maybe July or august. Since a lot of shows are loaded in, the theaters can’t be used for anything else. So there will be a push to start doubtfire, Diana and sunset at some point or force load out. If the vaccines don’t work by the end of the year or we need boosters every year—then broadway won’t reopen as is and major rethinking of theaters will need to be done. It will be tough to have the population do vaccine every year. Flu shot was about 45% in 18/19 season. So that’s around 150 million. If combined vaccine is done that will help. |
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| re: I’m a little more optimistic than you | |
| Posted by: Will (tommyjonzie@yahoo.com) 06:26 pm EST 02/13/21 | |
| In reply to: I’m a little more optimistic than you - dramedy 11:38 am EST 02/11/21 | |
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| My view nothing will really get going until the middle of 2022 and even then it will be far from 100 percent normal. And if I'm wrong it will be later not earlier. But I've been wrong before so who knows? | |
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| re: I’m a little more optimistic than you | |
| Posted by: ryhog 12:27 pm EST 02/11/21 | |
| In reply to: I’m a little more optimistic than you - dramedy 11:38 am EST 02/11/21 | |
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| I agree with your timeline comments. I am not so sure shows will open based on the notion of wasting reserves; people don't think that way. I think Hamilton can and will open sooner rather than later because there is a demand for it locally at a lower price point and they will make money at half of their pre-covid grosses. The other two you mention are tourist shows primarily and I do not think we will see them quite so soon. Also, as I have mentioned before, everyone is worried about over-dilution. Of your next group, I think Company should be added, probably ahead of some of yours. And regarding force outs, I don't think that's going to be much of an issue. I think we will be doing very well to have half the theatres open by the Tony cutoff, whenever it is, so letting someone stay put is not a bad idea; at least there is a little cash coming in to pay someone to keep the pipes from freezing. I don't think we can fret about what happens in future years. Let's get everybody vaccinated once, get the lights re-lit, and then we will have time to see where we are. Regarding vaccine timeline, this morning Fauci said that based on what's happening now, he expects we will start the vaccination of everyone by April and that herd immunity could arrive sooner than the end of the year as previously predicted- as soon as the end of summer. |
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