Probably. Nine got some great reviews and became the event show to see right before the Tony's while Dreamgirls had been around for months.
I think they probably would have jumped at the chance to snub Cats.
I wonder what would happen with the cast. Would Betty Buckley have beat Lillianne Montevecchi? (still seems so odd that Montevecchi beat Anita Morris who was all anyone talked about in regards to the show.)