| re: What you said is not factual. | |
| Posted by: ryhog 06:42 pm EST 02/23/21 | |
| In reply to: re: What you said is not factual. - Live_From_London 06:19 pm EST 02/23/21 | |
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| I'm afraid that oversimplifies some. We have two concerns and the messaging has not been great in separating them. First, we have the public health concern, which is to reach herd immunity. That means, in effect, that we have reduced the burden of the virus on society, we don't have overloaded hospitals, the morgues are not filled, and so on. "Needing to get back into theatres" is not a part of that equation, although sadly our British friends have had a hard time wrapping their heads around that rather fundamental notion. Science tells us when and to what extent we can get on with life generally or specifically. Economics does not play a role in that calculus. The other concern is a personal one, which is that once we are individually vaccinated, it doesn't really matter to us personally if the next person is or not. (Personally, I mean, not as a part of society.) So how does this translate into an action plan? First, science tells us the extent to which we can have a limited reopening that is safe. (Economics will then tell us if that's viable, but that's another matter. Economics cannot morally drive this determination.) Second, science tells us the mechanisms by which we can make sure that any reopening is safeguarded. (Can we have vaccine passports? Can we have rapid testing? Can we have ventilation? Can we have hardcore tracing? etc. Finally, we have science to let us know what the public health can tolerate at various points on the vaccination continuum. It seems that the end of summer is when we can expect to achieve meaningful reopening. What Boris has proposed (which of course may or may not follow in the footsteps of past mis-steps) may be viable scientifically. I don't know if it can be viable financially in London (I doubt it); we know it can't be on Broadway. | |
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