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| re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial | |
| Posted by: manchurch03104 12:43 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: Six - Back on Broadway commercial - icecadet 11:59 am EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| people are getting really ahead of themselves. Broadway will not be reopened as we know it for at least one year. | |
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| As long as everyone's making predictions... | |
| Last Edit: ShowGoer 08:11 am EDT 03/15/21 | |
| Posted by: ShowGoer 08:09 am EDT 03/15/21 | |
| In reply to: re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial - manchurch03104 12:43 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| ...I'll throw mine in the ring. I have almost no doubt Broadway will be nearly back to where it was by this time next year. That doesn't mean producers will be able to gouge people for $400-$500 premium tickets anytime soon, except on the most rare occasions (maybe if the Hugh Jackman revival is good, for example) – but I think most people are underestimating everyone's desire to get out and do things again, even if still wearing a mask. There's a reason all available tickets for the first Knicks games sold out within half an hour, or why NYC movie theaters re-opening 10 days ago single-handedly helped the movie biz bounce back to its best box office by far in over a year (and why movie studios are now moving the dates of some of their biggest summer releases UP, even earlier than they'd planned just a month or two ago). I'm a guy who realized by last April or May that Broadway would be closed for at least a year, even as others were calling me a Negative Nellie and eagerly & optimistically rescheduling their Music Man and Plaza Suite tickets for late last summer or early fall, so no one has yet accused me of being a Pollyanna... but even factoring in all the question marks – tourism, midtown business, Covid variants, etc. – I'd bet my life there'll be at least half a dozen shows up and running this autumn, and by spring 2022 nearly every theatre will be booked. It'll still be a different world, and the shows may not (and likely won't) be making the profit they were a year or two ago, and discounts will be plentiful for a good year or so... but if capping movie and sports attendance at 25% or whatever didn't keep AMC Cinemas and Madison Square Garden from re-opening, then some (justifiable) anxiety isn't going to be enough of a reason for producers to keep their shows on ice for another year or longer, once they get the all-clear to open Broadway houses at 100% capacity. |
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| re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial | |
| Posted by: seenenuf 10:28 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial - manchurch03104 12:43 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| "Broadway as we know it" is history. | |
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| Similar broad statements were made after 9/11 | |
| Posted by: dramedy 01:21 pm EDT 03/15/21 | |
| In reply to: re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial - seenenuf 10:28 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| Our society has changed, we will be scared all the time, we will give up our privacy rights to be safe, etc. I didn’t think America would change much and it hasn’t. I think the only lingering sign is 3 oz max liquid in planes. Even the shoes and belts isn’t strictly adhered to in all cases. Maybe i have to walk around a barrier to enter a park or building or open my bag to be searched entering a theater, but I don’t feel it’s that much different. The pandemic is different type of threat but once vaccinated it’s like the flu. Yes people go to the theater with early symptoms of the flu—And pass it to others unvaccinated before covid. It will take two or so years for tourism to get to levels precovid to support the old shows. | |
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| I would say four or five months is a better guess nmi. | |
| Posted by: Ncassidine 09:29 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial - manchurch03104 12:43 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| re: I would say four or five months is a better guess nmi. | |
| Last Edit: Ann 10:14 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| Posted by: Ann 10:13 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: I would say four or five months is a better guess nmi. - Ncassidine 09:29 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| How can Broadway "as we know it" be back in four or five months? What shows have set an opening date and who is selling tickets? | |
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| re: I would say four or five months is a better guess nmi. | |
| Posted by: BroadwayTonyJ 07:41 am EDT 03/15/21 | |
| In reply to: re: I would say four or five months is a better guess nmi. - Ann 10:13 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| I shudder to think how long it may take for "Broadway as we know it" to come back. I think we need to be content with any baby steps that (hopefully) will happen within the next 9 months. | |
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| re: I would say four or five months is a better guess nmi. | |
| Posted by: Zelgo 01:42 pm EDT 03/16/21 | |
| In reply to: re: I would say four or five months is a better guess nmi. - BroadwayTonyJ 07:41 am EDT 03/15/21 | |
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| Do we even want Broadway as we knew it? It became an over-priced dumping ground for Las Vegas-like productions specifically to attract tourist dollars. I am hoping that producers will rethink the role on Bway in NYC, but I'm not holding my breath. |
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| re: I would say four or five months is a better guess nmi. | |
| Posted by: ryhog 01:54 pm EDT 03/16/21 | |
| In reply to: re: I would say four or five months is a better guess nmi. - Zelgo 01:42 pm EDT 03/16/21 | |
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| No, we don't, but let's remember a couple of things. First, Broadway is a lot more than the dumping ground you describe. Please don't hold your breath (blue is not a good color for you) but yes it would be lovely if there was a little less of the Las Vegas-like. Maybe if the non-tourists show more support for what they have been missing, there will be more opportunity to program to a somewhat different demographic. Regarding producers, honestly, that's a tall order but it also betrays a secret: it is audiences that drive programming. Unless and until tourists return, programming for them will not return. (And this is why I keep posting that all of these evergreens everyone is expecting on day one will not reopen then.) | |
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| A year? | |
| Last Edit: Leon_W 02:29 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| Posted by: Leon_W 02:27 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial - manchurch03104 12:43 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| I hope sooner than that. As of the 12th March 21 percent of people in the New York State have had at least their first vaccine dose for example. With he supply increasing we could end up with a very significant proportion of the population covered by the summer. Then you will see infection rates drastically fall unless a variant proves to be difficult. I can really see some shows stating performances for the vaccinated and children before the fall. I would be very happy to show my CDC card along with my ticket. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 02:49 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: A year? - Leon_W 02:27 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| You missed the key words "as we know it" in the post to which you responded. That is not a function of vaccines. It can't happen until tourism returns in critical mass and that's likely 2+ years away. Once we reach herd immunity, you will not need to prove anything to go to the theatre. In the interim, that won't be your card but may be a digital system that is under development. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Last Edit: Leon_W 09:52 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| Posted by: Leon_W 09:50 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - ryhog 02:49 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| The point “as we know it” is so open though, could that be the opening of exactly the same number of shows we had before at lockdown point or so most of the old shows are back but people argue it’s not the same as before because there is no Mean Girls. Shows always close and open so it’s an always moving target. For me the measure is are there are a majority of theaters open with shows that gather enough revenue to further sustain them. Things will never be exactly the same again but there can be some semblance of normality that is close enough. I don’t see that being a year away with the progress we are seeing now especially watching the shows opening up on London as they are. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: BroadwayTonyJ 07:45 am EDT 03/15/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - Leon_W 09:50 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| As we posts theses comments, new lockdowns are going into effect in both Italy and France. We're going in the right direction (finally) in our country, but we shouldn't jump the gun. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 10:30 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - Leon_W 09:50 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| I was not playing games with the words. As I have posted elsewhere on this page, I think we will have half a dozen or so shows in the Fall and will be around half functioning by the Spring. A majority of theatres will be dark until the following season and maybe beyond. There will not be a semblance of normality. Why? Because even assuming we stay on track disease wise, we will not have everyone vaccinated until August, and Equity is not going to negotiate a different protocol than the one they have in place now (which is not a viable foundation for reopening) until everyone in a theatre has been vaccinated. Then, assuming negotiations go like clockwork (a big open question) shows need to be cast and rehearsed, and tickets have to be sold. That gets us to October. Now that's just logistics. We then confront the fact that the market is going to be small. Lots of people have reasons not to come to Broadway and no one seriously thinks tourism will return on a dime. London is not an analogous situation because it is not tourist dependent in the same way, even if all other things were equal. 21-22 is going to be a glass half full. I am optimistic but I respectfully suggest that what you are suggesting is not realistic in that time frame. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: Singapore/Fling 02:51 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - ryhog 02:49 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| If we reach herd immunity. I believe the science is unclear as to whether we can hit that goal with only 70% of the population vaccinated, which would reflect the large group of people who are currently saying that they will not get vaccinated. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: BroadwayTonyJ 03:18 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - Singapore/Fling 02:51 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| Fauci has been saying 70 to 90% to achieve herd immunity. If the magic number turns out to 90%, the fact that 50% of white Republican males are refusing vaccination and that a significant portion of the black population have understandable (based on history) concerns about the vaccine -- these two factors will make getting to 90% very tough. We'll have to wait and see what happens. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 04:31 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - BroadwayTonyJ 03:18 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| From what I am reading, the goal is a penetration "approaching" herd immunity. From that point, the virus will eventually wane, the question being what the graph looks like. Also, as I have written before, once we have a good level of immunity, we start not to care either epidemiologically or personally about the idiots. A couple of data points. First, an article in the Times the other day revealed that blacks are getting vaccinated with less resistance than had been feared in advance. The latino population is the larger challenge. Second, it's a funny thing about those white republican males in red states. It seems you have to watch what they do and not what they say. Although of course there are the true crazies but I don't think the Venn Diagram puts them in the circle with theatre-goer. And yes those vaccinated white men can still lie in the face of the data, just like their fearless leader, even though they will not lie in the face of danger. :-) |
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| re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial | |
| Posted by: castro 02:26 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial - manchurch03104 12:43 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| I think the commercial is very effective. I was on fence about seeing SIx, but now it seems like a way of celebrating the rebirth of Broadway. | |
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| re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial | |
| Posted by: Singapore/Fling 01:11 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial - manchurch03104 12:43 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| Yes, but "Six" is one of the shows that is more likely to open sooner than later: small cast, simple set, huge fanbase of teenagers (if we can trust the previous runs) who are itching to return to their "normal" lives and will flock in from the tri-state area to gobble up this musical. This commercial is wrapping itself up in the larger emotions around Broadway coming back, but it only exists to sell one... er, six things. | |
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