Threaded Order Chronological Order
| A year? | |
| Last Edit: Leon_W 02:29 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| Posted by: Leon_W 02:27 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: Six - Back on Broadway commercial - manchurch03104 12:43 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| I hope sooner than that. As of the 12th March 21 percent of people in the New York State have had at least their first vaccine dose for example. With he supply increasing we could end up with a very significant proportion of the population covered by the summer. Then you will see infection rates drastically fall unless a variant proves to be difficult. I can really see some shows stating performances for the vaccinated and children before the fall. I would be very happy to show my CDC card along with my ticket. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 02:49 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: A year? - Leon_W 02:27 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| You missed the key words "as we know it" in the post to which you responded. That is not a function of vaccines. It can't happen until tourism returns in critical mass and that's likely 2+ years away. Once we reach herd immunity, you will not need to prove anything to go to the theatre. In the interim, that won't be your card but may be a digital system that is under development. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Last Edit: Leon_W 09:52 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| Posted by: Leon_W 09:50 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - ryhog 02:49 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| The point “as we know it” is so open though, could that be the opening of exactly the same number of shows we had before at lockdown point or so most of the old shows are back but people argue it’s not the same as before because there is no Mean Girls. Shows always close and open so it’s an always moving target. For me the measure is are there are a majority of theaters open with shows that gather enough revenue to further sustain them. Things will never be exactly the same again but there can be some semblance of normality that is close enough. I don’t see that being a year away with the progress we are seeing now especially watching the shows opening up on London as they are. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: BroadwayTonyJ 07:45 am EDT 03/15/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - Leon_W 09:50 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| As we posts theses comments, new lockdowns are going into effect in both Italy and France. We're going in the right direction (finally) in our country, but we shouldn't jump the gun. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 10:30 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - Leon_W 09:50 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| I was not playing games with the words. As I have posted elsewhere on this page, I think we will have half a dozen or so shows in the Fall and will be around half functioning by the Spring. A majority of theatres will be dark until the following season and maybe beyond. There will not be a semblance of normality. Why? Because even assuming we stay on track disease wise, we will not have everyone vaccinated until August, and Equity is not going to negotiate a different protocol than the one they have in place now (which is not a viable foundation for reopening) until everyone in a theatre has been vaccinated. Then, assuming negotiations go like clockwork (a big open question) shows need to be cast and rehearsed, and tickets have to be sold. That gets us to October. Now that's just logistics. We then confront the fact that the market is going to be small. Lots of people have reasons not to come to Broadway and no one seriously thinks tourism will return on a dime. London is not an analogous situation because it is not tourist dependent in the same way, even if all other things were equal. 21-22 is going to be a glass half full. I am optimistic but I respectfully suggest that what you are suggesting is not realistic in that time frame. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: Singapore/Fling 02:51 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - ryhog 02:49 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| If we reach herd immunity. I believe the science is unclear as to whether we can hit that goal with only 70% of the population vaccinated, which would reflect the large group of people who are currently saying that they will not get vaccinated. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: BroadwayTonyJ 03:18 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - Singapore/Fling 02:51 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| Fauci has been saying 70 to 90% to achieve herd immunity. If the magic number turns out to 90%, the fact that 50% of white Republican males are refusing vaccination and that a significant portion of the black population have understandable (based on history) concerns about the vaccine -- these two factors will make getting to 90% very tough. We'll have to wait and see what happens. | |
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| re: A year? | |
| Posted by: ryhog 04:31 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
| In reply to: re: A year? - BroadwayTonyJ 03:18 pm EDT 03/14/21 | |
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| From what I am reading, the goal is a penetration "approaching" herd immunity. From that point, the virus will eventually wane, the question being what the graph looks like. Also, as I have written before, once we have a good level of immunity, we start not to care either epidemiologically or personally about the idiots. A couple of data points. First, an article in the Times the other day revealed that blacks are getting vaccinated with less resistance than had been feared in advance. The latino population is the larger challenge. Second, it's a funny thing about those white republican males in red states. It seems you have to watch what they do and not what they say. Although of course there are the true crazies but I don't think the Venn Diagram puts them in the circle with theatre-goer. And yes those vaccinated white men can still lie in the face of the data, just like their fearless leader, even though they will not lie in the face of danger. :-) |
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