I think Adrienne Warren is a lock for Tina. I doubt Karen had a chance. I assume that the moulin rouge producers are starting to gear up for opening and one of the first steps would be get commitments from stars if they are returning or not. So she probably had to make that decision around now and it will be announced soon. As she said, she wanted to get ahead of the rumors as to why she isn’t returning.
Rudin isn’t a producer of moulin rouge so her statements are in general about industry and not a toxic work environment at MRouge and returning to that show.