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| re: This is NOT good | |
| Posted by: NewtonUK 07:12 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
| In reply to: This is NOT good - broadwaybacker 06:40 pm EDT 07/15/21 | |
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| What I have been hearing is that, of course, you can test positive when you are vaccinated. But illness will in 99% of cases be minor, You may not even know you are positive. And doctors are not sure that covid load you would be carrying copuld infect others. The rise in Covid rate, is, as I hear, mainly the Delta variant. And the people getting sick are in large part unvaccinated. I do believe that vaccination requirement, as at Springsteen, should be mainatined for every Broadway show, concert, off Broadway show etc, through at least the New Year. And audiences should be required to wear masks, as daunting as this is for some. I believe we can accomplish that, and all will be ok. Perhaps we need a few fewer chicken littles at this stage of the 'coming out'. |
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| re: This is NOT good | |
| Posted by: ryhog 08:50 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
| In reply to: re: This is NOT good - NewtonUK 07:12 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
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| I agree both about the state of the science (with a few minor tweaks mentioned below) and what we should be doing about it. What I have read is that the non-minor instances are much less than 99%. "Minor" effects are generally equivalent to minor cold symptoms (not bad ones). Finally, it seems inconceivable to me that any doctor is unsure about cross-infection by the vaccinated: we are seeing too many examples in vaccinated couples for this to leave any doubt. The one compelling conclusion from all of this is that we need to be hardcore in requiring vaccinations. There are few safer places on earth than sitting in a crowded theatre in which everyone is vaccinated and wearing masks. That said, everyone has to find their own comfort zone and we should not be stigmatizing their choices. | |
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| re: This is NOT good--BUT, the science is. | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 09:52 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
| In reply to: re: This is NOT good - ryhog 08:50 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
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| Exactly. And just to drill a bit deeper into the science, the data out of Massachusetts is that only 1/10th of one percent of fully vaccinated people have developed so-called "breakthrough infections" (4.2 million people fully vaxed, 4450 breakthrough cases), and of those, 1.78% have died. That represents a death rate of 0.0019% among the fully vaxed. In addition, only 6.8% of the fully vaxed people who developed breakthrough infections that required hospitalization. Obviously, the sooner we're able to get shots into the arms of kids the better. Nationwide, there is a much higher incidence of disease among younger people, especially with respect to the delta variant. |
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| re: This is NOT good--BUT, the science is. | |
| Posted by: ryhog 11:41 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
| In reply to: re: This is NOT good--BUT, the science is. - broadwaybacker 09:52 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
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| Something is off in those stats and I suspect it is in what the percentages relate to. It is impossible that 1.78% of breakthrough cases have died. That would be 79.21 people, a large share of deaths since the first breakthrough cases were ID'd. Ditto for the 6.8%. That would be over 300 hospitalized breakthoughs. | |
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| re: This is NOT good--BUT, the science is. | |
| Posted by: broadwaybacker 02:20 pm EDT 07/16/21 | |
| In reply to: re: This is NOT good--BUT, the science is. - ryhog 11:41 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
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| As mikem said, this was reported yesterday in the Boston Globe. Here is the precise quote: "About 92% of the infections in vaccinated residents did not require hospitalizations, while 303 people, or 6.8%, were hospitalized, according to state Department of Public Health data through July 10. The Boston Herald reported the breakthrough data on Tuesday based on a public records request. Seventy-nine vaccinated residents in Massachusetts died from COVID-19, either without being hospitalized or following a hospital stay, DPH said. That death toll reflects 1.78% of the 4,450 confirmed breakthrough cases and 0.0019% of the 4,195,844 people fully vaccinated as of July 10." So rhyhog, your math was right, but your skepticism might have been misplaced. 79 deaths out of 4.2 million people vaccinated is a tiny number, and of course, we don't know what underlying medical conditins those 79 might have had. Same thing re the 303 hospitalized people, of whom some unreported number died. |
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| re: This is NOT good--BUT, the science is. | |
| Last Edit: mikem 11:58 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
| Posted by: mikem 11:57 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
| In reply to: re: This is NOT good--BUT, the science is. - ryhog 11:41 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
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| The 79 deaths and 303 hospitalizations are apparently correct numbers, as quoted by the Boston Globe and local news stations. I'm having trouble finding an overall number of deaths in Massachusetts since vaccination became available, but I agree that seems like too high a proportion of overall COVID deaths, though. | |
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| re: This is NOT good--BUT, the science is. | |
| Posted by: mikem 01:15 pm EDT 07/16/21 | |
| In reply to: re: This is NOT good--BUT, the science is. - mikem 11:57 am EDT 07/16/21 | |
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| Found some more info. We don't know when the 79 people were vaccinated, when they were vaccine-eligible, or when they died. The average age of someone who dies from COVID is still over 70. Massachusetts did not open their vaccine program up to the elderly until Feb 1, 2021 and to everyone over 13 until Apr 19. Roughly 1341 people have died from COVID in Massachusetts since Mar 15, 2021. 79 is 5.8% of those deaths. Roughly 407 people have died from COVID in Massachusetts since May 1, 2021. 79 is 19.4% of those deaths. I'm not sure any of the above information is all that helpful, though. Too much relevant info is missing. |
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