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Last Edit: ShowGoer 01:00 pm EDT 08/24/21
Posted by: ShowGoer 12:56 pm EDT 08/24/21
In reply to: re: But again, no one is celebrating. Not to beat a dead horse, but… - ryhog 10:08 am EDT 08/24/21

Agree with this nearly 100%. As is often the case, the areas we disagree are more about semantics or specifics than some overall worldview.
Pass Over, you're right about – the Anna in the Tropics analogy probably also being a good one; I guess my reaction there is, if it hadn't been for the rollout of the vaccines, the sense that by July 4th 70% of the country would be vaccinated, and the feeling that the worst was behind us – AND with no concept of the Delta variant – I have a strong suspicion that Pass Over might not have moved to Broadway at all, at least not right now, and at that huge theater. At the time it was announced - I show a press release date of May 4th – they obviously thought theater would be back, audiences would be eager, and that by being first out of the gate they'd not only be the only game in town, but would hugely benefit from that mere fact. And then what happened?- according to Wikipedia the Delta variant was first labeled a "variant of concern" only 2 days later, on May 6th (by British scientists).

If they'd known then what they know now, I have to believe that non-profit or not, IF they'd announced they were moving this 3-person show to Broadway at all, it would be in the Booth, or another small playhouse that wasn't occupied this summer, as opposed to a 1200-seat house that hasn't hosted a non-musical play in 20 years. (& i realize Jordan doesn't have a theatre like that aside from the Kerr, I'm just speaking generally about producing options.) And by extension, I obviously think others would have made similar recalibrated decisions or delayed reopening announcements – again, look at the timeline: Cuomo announced Broadway was reopening in September with Hamilton, Wicked and Lion King on May 5th, Phantom, Chicago and Six all put out their releases on May 6th - the same day as that report on Delta from England. It's terrible timing all around, and it seems like you and I are probably in agreement that now there are no good options; either a lot of these 30-some Broadway shows scheduled to open/reopen in the next 4 months rethink everything and postpone again, or they conclude (as I'm assuming nearly all will) that it's just too late and they're in too deep, so for better or worse they need to forge ahead (much as De Blasio and Clive Davis did), hoping against hope for a lucky outcome. But either scenario likely ends by only demoralizing nearly everybody.

IF the new spring-summer 2022 timeline for the end of the pandemic speculated about in the last few days is accurate, then it seems likely that by this time next year Broadway will be where we'd hoped it would be by the holidays this winter. But it's hard for me to see how many of the shows beginning in the next few weeks would hold on till then. Truly, the worst-case scenario (and a highly possible one) for me at this point isn't even that the non-profit shows all lose money, or that other commercial shows (Diana, Mrs Doubtfire, even Six) all flop; it's the possibility of headlines in January, or possibly sooner, like the ones we saw over the last year about Frozen, Mean Girls, or West Side Story, but this time for even higher-profile shows ("After 25 Years Chicago Posts Closing Notice, a Victim of the Pandemic" or "Phantom, Longest-Running Show in Broadway History, Couldn't Hide From Covid"). That would be more depressing than I think anyone in the industry is prepared for even now.

OK, enough. As usual, I hope that I'm wrong and this is just a phase I'm going through. Thumbs up, fingers crossed.
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