This season's Best Musical candidates are not that strong a slate. If Mrs Doubtfire returns, it has a decent chance of getting nominated.
At least for now, I believe the candidates are the following, in order of my guess of their likelihood of being nominated:
A Strange Loop - a lock for a nomination
Six - a lock
Girl from the North Country
Mr Saturday Night
Flying Over Sunset
Nine candidates, so five should be nominated. I think Mrs Doubtfire is right on the border.