Threaded Order Chronological Order
| And on the other hand… | |
| Last Edit: ShowGoer 12:40 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| Posted by: ShowGoer 12:38 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| In reply to: re: West Side Story Oscar nominations - - mikem 11:05 am EST 02/08/22 | |
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| “ I think Ariana DeBose is the frontrunner for Supporting Actress, and WSS may win in Production Design or Costume Design, but I think The Power of the Dog is going to win Best Picture and Best Director.” If Power of the Dog is on its way to winning Best Picture and Best Director, it’s almost impossible to imagine Kirsten Dunst, who’s the heart of the film, not winning as well. (Also, Benedict Cumberbatch and especially Kodi Smit-McFee are possible to win in the Lead and Supporting Actor categories, respectively.) Aside from giving a great, harrowing performance, Dunst is a hard-working, well-liked, longtime member of the Hollywood community for most of her life, since she was a child star – but someone who only two years ago was starring on TV shows that were canceled after a season – so for her to return to the movies and win an Oscar is the kind of narrative that voters tend to love. One can easily foresee a scenario over the next few weeks where that film becomes the runaway favorite in nearly all the major races. I also suspect that Spielberg and Kushner both getting snubbed doesn’t bode well for DeBose; voters clearly saw the film and were impressed with it, but there might just not be all that much passion for it. And with other movies like Dune and Nightmare Alley currently favored in the Production and Costume Design categories, it’s possible that West Side could go the way of many past films that received many nominations but didn’t win a single one. The next month will reveal a lot, especially the SAG awards. |
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| re: And on the other hand… | |
| Posted by: lowwriter 09:54 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: And on the other hand… - ShowGoer 12:38 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| Kirsten Dunst will not win an Oscar for Power of the Dog. Despite its many nominations, I think Power of the Dog will lose best picture as well. It’s a shame Tick, Tick…Boom! missed best picture. Somehow Nightmare Alley slipped in there. I will be surprised if Ariana doesn’t get the Oscar. |
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| re: And on the other hand… | |
| Posted by: dczoo 02:35 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| In reply to: And on the other hand… - ShowGoer 12:38 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| I totally agree about Dunst, but DeBose is the shiny new object, which is what often wins the supporting award. Plus, Anita always steals the show. The Oscars producers would be crazy not to have Rita Moreno announce that award. |
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| Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: AnyaS 10:35 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| In reply to: re: And on the other hand… - dczoo 02:35 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| DeBose got some really good reviews when the movie was released, but I don't recall any flat-out raves about her performance, like the kind Mike Faist did receive. (Granted, I didn't read every single review) Yet, she's slowly emerged as the frontrunner, and Faist didn't even get nominated. The Oscars are weird sometimes. I'm happy for her, though. | |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Last Edit: WaymanWong 11:56 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| Posted by: WaymanWong 11:42 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| In reply to: Such a strange film year - AnyaS 10:35 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| Ever since awards season began, Ariana DeBose has been the one to beat for Supporting Actress. It's a combination of her fiery performance and her role of Anita, which is the showiest and rangiest in ''West Side Story.'' (Of course, Rita Moreno won an Oscar for playing Anita, and Karen Olivo won a Tony.) DeBose's triumph in ''West Side Story'' also caps off a recent career run that has included ''The Prom'' on Netflix and ''Schmigadoon!'' on Apple+ TV. DeBose has won 17 Supporting Actress awards for ''West Side Story,'' including the Golden Globe and the L.A. Film Critics Circle. She's been up for 3 dozen more prizes, and hasn't missed getting nominated by any of the major awards, such as Critics' Choice, BAFTA, SAG and Oscars. Mike Faist is equally award-worthy, but hasn't the same luck or traction with critics groups. He's won only 1 Supporting Actor award (from Phoenix Critics Circle), and missed the cut for Critics' Choice, SAG, Globes and Oscars. Faist's biggest coup, so far, was his surprise nomination from BAFTA. Awards are so subjective, and it's a crapshoot as to who gets nominated or wins. Oftentimes, it feels like such an echo chamber. To me, ''West Side Story's'' cast is full of dynamic triple threats who deserved to win the SAG Ensemble prize. Now that would've been cool! |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: AnyaS 01:32 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - WaymanWong 11:42 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| Agree with you on everything except that DeBose was always the one to beat. Aunjanue Ellis was the huge favorite to take supporting actress when awards season first started. She practically dominated the early awards and eventually racked up over 30 wins or nominations. I don't think anyone in her category even comes close to matching her number of wins. But even so, DeBose has become the frontrunner now. It really is a shame WSS missed out on a SAG nomination and the mediocre Don't Look Up snagged a nod instead. |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: WaymanWong 01:29 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - AnyaS 01:32 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| ''Aunjanue Ellis was the huge favorite. ... I don't think anyone in her category even comes close to matching her number of wins.'' I have to humbly disagree. GoldDerby.com has a prediction chart of the Oscar acting races (linked below), and Ellis was never the ''huge favorite.'' According to their pundits, Ellis always ran behind Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst (''The Power of the Dog'') and Caitriona Balfe (''Belfast''). As for actual wins, IMDB.com lists Ellis as scoring 6 prizes for Supporting Actress: African-American Film Critics; Black Film Critics Circle; Critics Association of Central Florida; National Board of Review; the Nevada Film Critics Society, and Washington D.C. Area Film Critics. By contrast, IMDB lists DeBose as scoring 15 prizes for Supporting Actress (my earlier count included a couple for Breakthrough). So far, Ellis has racked up 27 nominations for Supporting Actress, and DeBose edges her out with 33. However, I do agree with you on it being a shame that ''West Side Story'' missed out on SAG Ensemble, over the ''mediocre'' ''Don't Look Up.'' ;) |
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| Link | GoldDerby.com: Predicted Oscar Winners Graph (scroll down to Supporting Actress) |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: AnyaS 03:58 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - WaymanWong 01:29 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
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| We'll agree to disagree. No harm in that. | |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: TheOtherOne 08:49 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - AnyaS 01:32 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| The strangest thing about this film year, at least in terms of this Oscar year, is that three of the Best Picture nominees are remakes. I doubt that has happened before or will happen again -- unless remakes are the wave of the future. Neither Don't Look Up or House of Gucci should have had a SAG ensemble award over WSS. Ridiculous. |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: TheOtherOne 09:36 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - TheOtherOne 08:49 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| "Neither Don't Look Up or House of Gucci should have had a SAG ensemble award over WSS. Ridiculous." Nomination, that is. The award has not been presented yet. |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Last Edit: WaymanWong 12:54 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
| Posted by: WaymanWong 12:48 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - TheOtherOne 09:36 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| I couldn't agree more. It's as if the SAG nominators were so starstruck that they rewarded the movies with the best-known names (''Don't Look Up'' with Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence and Meryl Streep and ''The House of Gucci'' with Lady Gaga and Al Pacino) over ''West Side Story,'' which had a diverse and versatile ensemble of newcomers (Rachel Zegler, Mike Faist, David Alvarez, Ariana DeBose), who could act, sing and dance. Sad! | |
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| I don’t know…. | |
| Posted by: ShowGoer 04:47 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - AnyaS 01:32 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| Everything you both have said is an astute read on the race so far, but I just have a feeling that both DeBose and Ellis are vulnerable here and that Kirsten Dunst will sneak in and win, even with relatively few ‘precursor’ awards. Getting very strong Anthony Hopkins-over-Chadwick Bozeman vibes on this one… or to go back even further, in the same category, the years when Juliette Binoche won over Lauren Bacall, or Marcia Gay Harden won over Kate Hudson, in both cases after the latter had led the way all season long in a somewhat ‘lighter’ movie, and in both cases where the winner eventually went to a more searing dramatic performance. The SAG ensemble nominations tell us nothing here, since West Side’s wasn’t nominated- but neither was Power of the Dog, because they don’t have an ensembe, it being basically a 4-person play. DeBose is sensational in her big number, and her last scene is dynamite. But Dunst is a supporting role that plays like a lead. And with 12 nominations to West Side’s 7, her movie got nominated for literally everything it could have gotten nominated for, so I just feel the Power of the Dog wave coming on strong over the next month. Nothing but a hunch, of course. |
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| re: And on the other hand… | |
| Posted by: WaymanWong 02:55 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| In reply to: re: And on the other hand… - dczoo 02:35 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| ''The Oscars producers would be crazy not to have Rita Moreno announce that award.'' Not gonna happen. The Oscars just had Rita Moreno present Best Picture LAST YEAR. She marked the 60th anniversary of ''West Side Story.'' Given that Moreno is IN this new ''West Side Story'' and is an Executive Producer, it would suggest the fix is in for a DeBose victory. It's more likely that last year's Supporting Actor winner (Daniel Kaluuya) will present this year's Supporting Actress prize. |
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| Bad idea. And another reason it’s not gonna happen: | |
| Last Edit: ShowGoer 03:46 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| Posted by: ShowGoer 03:45 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| In reply to: re: And on the other hand… - WaymanWong 02:55 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| The Chadwick Boseman gambit last year, where for the first and only time in history they left Best Actor as the final category, certain that his win would be an emotional capper to an uncertain Oscars in a turbulent year; instead, the award went to Anthony Hopkins who wasn’t there and was one of the few nominees who hadn’t even checked in on Zoom, and the ceremony ended abruptly and awkwardly with barely even a goodnight. After that, I’d say they’d be crazy TO have Rita Moreno present the award- aside from Wayman’s point, no way do they’d chance the very real risk of having Moreno stand there and not only fail to symbolically pass the torch to the new Anita, but instead wind up handing it to a blonde white actress. |
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| re: And on the other hand… | |
| Posted by: Zelgo 02:34 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| In reply to: And on the other hand… - ShowGoer 12:38 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| I'm actually surprised by the Ariana DeBose nomination! I didn't find her that interesting a character, actually. Rita Moreno plays Anita with more fire and cynicism. DeBose plays her more pallid. | |
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| re: Spielberg wasn’t snubbed. nm | |
| Posted by: SuzanneR 01:10 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| In reply to: And on the other hand… - ShowGoer 12:38 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| Spielberg not only wasn't snubbed; he made history today! | |
| Last Edit: WaymanWong 03:03 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| Posted by: WaymanWong 02:44 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Spielberg wasn’t snubbed. nm - SuzanneR 01:10 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| With ''West Side Story,'' his first movie musical, Spielberg has now been nominated 11 times for producing a Best Picture nominee. Most notably, he might be the only one to have been nominated for Best Director in 6 successive decades: * ''Close Encounters'' (1977) * ''Raiders of the Lost Ark'' (1981) and ''E.T.'' (1982) * ''Schindler's List'' (1993) and Saving Private Ryan'' (1998); these two are his Directing Oscar wins * ''Munich'' (2005) * ''Lincoln'' (2012) * ''West Side Story'' (2021) Spielberg does have a notable snub, though; ''The Color Purple'' got 11 Oscar nominations, but not one for directing. However, he won the DGA. Spielberg might know how Denis Villeneuve feels today: ''Dune'' got 10 Oscar nominations, but none for his directing of that sci-fi epic. |
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| re: Spielberg not only wasn't snubbed; he made history today! | |
| Posted by: ShowGoer 04:48 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: Spielberg not only wasn't snubbed; he made history today! - WaymanWong 02:44 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| My mistake; I was tired and simply had a brain-lapse. (I’d momentarily forgotten that it was Denis Villeneuve and not Spielberg who’d gotten overlooked in the directing category!) | |
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