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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: AnyaS 01:32 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - WaymanWong 11:42 pm EST 02/08/22 | |
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| Agree with you on everything except that DeBose was always the one to beat. Aunjanue Ellis was the huge favorite to take supporting actress when awards season first started. She practically dominated the early awards and eventually racked up over 30 wins or nominations. I don't think anyone in her category even comes close to matching her number of wins. But even so, DeBose has become the frontrunner now. It really is a shame WSS missed out on a SAG nomination and the mediocre Don't Look Up snagged a nod instead. |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: WaymanWong 01:29 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - AnyaS 01:32 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| ''Aunjanue Ellis was the huge favorite. ... I don't think anyone in her category even comes close to matching her number of wins.'' I have to humbly disagree. GoldDerby.com has a prediction chart of the Oscar acting races (linked below), and Ellis was never the ''huge favorite.'' According to their pundits, Ellis always ran behind Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst (''The Power of the Dog'') and Caitriona Balfe (''Belfast''). As for actual wins, IMDB.com lists Ellis as scoring 6 prizes for Supporting Actress: African-American Film Critics; Black Film Critics Circle; Critics Association of Central Florida; National Board of Review; the Nevada Film Critics Society, and Washington D.C. Area Film Critics. By contrast, IMDB lists DeBose as scoring 15 prizes for Supporting Actress (my earlier count included a couple for Breakthrough). So far, Ellis has racked up 27 nominations for Supporting Actress, and DeBose edges her out with 33. However, I do agree with you on it being a shame that ''West Side Story'' missed out on SAG Ensemble, over the ''mediocre'' ''Don't Look Up.'' ;) |
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| Link | GoldDerby.com: Predicted Oscar Winners Graph (scroll down to Supporting Actress) |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: AnyaS 03:58 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - WaymanWong 01:29 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
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| We'll agree to disagree. No harm in that. | |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: TheOtherOne 08:49 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - AnyaS 01:32 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| The strangest thing about this film year, at least in terms of this Oscar year, is that three of the Best Picture nominees are remakes. I doubt that has happened before or will happen again -- unless remakes are the wave of the future. Neither Don't Look Up or House of Gucci should have had a SAG ensemble award over WSS. Ridiculous. |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Posted by: TheOtherOne 09:36 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - TheOtherOne 08:49 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| "Neither Don't Look Up or House of Gucci should have had a SAG ensemble award over WSS. Ridiculous." Nomination, that is. The award has not been presented yet. |
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| re: Such a strange film year | |
| Last Edit: WaymanWong 12:54 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
| Posted by: WaymanWong 12:48 pm EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - TheOtherOne 09:36 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| I couldn't agree more. It's as if the SAG nominators were so starstruck that they rewarded the movies with the best-known names (''Don't Look Up'' with Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence and Meryl Streep and ''The House of Gucci'' with Lady Gaga and Al Pacino) over ''West Side Story,'' which had a diverse and versatile ensemble of newcomers (Rachel Zegler, Mike Faist, David Alvarez, Ariana DeBose), who could act, sing and dance. Sad! | |
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| I don’t know…. | |
| Posted by: ShowGoer 04:47 am EST 02/09/22 | |
| In reply to: re: Such a strange film year - AnyaS 01:32 am EST 02/09/22 | |
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| Everything you both have said is an astute read on the race so far, but I just have a feeling that both DeBose and Ellis are vulnerable here and that Kirsten Dunst will sneak in and win, even with relatively few ‘precursor’ awards. Getting very strong Anthony Hopkins-over-Chadwick Bozeman vibes on this one… or to go back even further, in the same category, the years when Juliette Binoche won over Lauren Bacall, or Marcia Gay Harden won over Kate Hudson, in both cases after the latter had led the way all season long in a somewhat ‘lighter’ movie, and in both cases where the winner eventually went to a more searing dramatic performance. The SAG ensemble nominations tell us nothing here, since West Side’s wasn’t nominated- but neither was Power of the Dog, because they don’t have an ensembe, it being basically a 4-person play. DeBose is sensational in her big number, and her last scene is dynamite. But Dunst is a supporting role that plays like a lead. And with 12 nominations to West Side’s 7, her movie got nominated for literally everything it could have gotten nominated for, so I just feel the Power of the Dog wave coming on strong over the next month. Nothing but a hunch, of course. |
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