Everything you both have said is an astute read on the race so far, but I just have a feeling that both DeBose and Ellis are vulnerable here and that Kirsten Dunst will sneak in and win, even with relatively few ‘precursor’ awards.
Getting very strong Anthony Hopkins-over-Chadwick Bozeman vibes on this one… or to go back even further, in the same category, the years when Juliette Binoche won over Lauren Bacall, or Marcia Gay Harden won over Kate Hudson, in both cases after the latter had led the way all season long in a somewhat ‘lighter’ movie, and in both cases where the winner eventually went to a more searing dramatic performance.
The SAG ensemble nominations tell us nothing here, since West Side’s wasn’t nominated- but neither was Power of the Dog, because they don’t have an ensembe, it being basically a 4-person play. DeBose is sensational in her big number, and her last scene is dynamite. But Dunst is a supporting role that plays like a lead. And with 12 nominations to West Side’s 7, her movie got nominated for literally everything it could have gotten nominated for, so I just feel the Power of the Dog wave coming on strong over the next month. Nothing but a hunch, of course. |
