The only person twisting the phrase "rules of recoupment" is jgerard who seems obsessed with Drabinsky. As ryhog points out, Drabinsky is irrelevant to this discussion.
The Lehman Trilogy's capitalization was $5.75 million. According to dramedy the show's total 16-week gross-gross is $13.5 million. We need at least two more pieces of information in order to make an intelligent guess at recoupment, i.e., #1 -- the amount of covid insurance money received by the production and #2 -- the show's weekly running cost. Does anyone have that information?
The BWW poster's comment is a piece of the puzzle. As such, it's just as relevant to this discussion as the speculation on the part of dramedy and ryhog that the show must have recouped.
Here's another question: since the National Theatre was the lead producer, is this show even considered a commercial production or would it be a non-profit one?