Oh Hello on Broadway (if you don't consider Nick Kroll and John Mulaney stars), may be the last play to recoup on Broadway without winning the Best Play Tony prior to Constitution.
Six will definitely recoup. I agree that Plaza Suite and The Music Man should recoup, barring some unforeseen disaster. MJ looks to be on track. Too soon or too hard to tell about A Strange Loop, Moulin Rouge, Funny Girl, and Harry Potter. I haven't followed Macbeth as closely as I have the others. Off the top of my head, I'd say that its chances look pretty good -- it's the only show among those discussed in this thread that I haven't seen.