Is there another major award that has MORE favorable odds than the Tonys?
Last Edit: WaymanWong 07:25 pm EDT 04/29/24
Posted by: WaymanWong 07:21 pm EDT 04/29/24
In reply to: 9 or more is one thing -- they don't have a rule for 15 or more? - Chazwaza 05:09 pm EDT 04/29/24

Last year, 301 feature films were deemed eligible for Oscar nominations, largely fighting for 1 of 10 slots for Best Picture.

Dozens and dozens of TV shows, on various networks and streaming platforms, battle for the roughly 8 Emmy slots for Best Comedy or Best Drama.

But on Broadway, 15 shows vie for Tony's 5 Best Musical slots (6 if there's a tie), and 10 shows vie for the 5 slots for Best Play.

With only 8 candidates eligible for Leading Actress in a Play, 4 of them will be nominated. That's 50% of the field.

There are categories where the odds are even better than 50%: For Leading Actor in a Play, 5 out of 9 contenders will be named.

For Play Revival, 3 out of 5 shows will be Tony nominees. For Musical Revival, 4 out of 6 shows will be Tony nominees.

In 2022, there were 6 Best Musical nominees: ''A Strange Loop,'' ''Girl From the North Country,'' ''MJ,'' ''Mr. Saturday Night,'' ''Paradise Square'' and ''Six.''

Who seriously believes all SIX of them were worthy of Best Musical? Granted, taste is subjective, but the Tony shouldn't be a participation trophy.
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Previous: 9 or more is one thing -- they don't have a rule for 15 or more? - Chazwaza 05:09 pm EDT 04/29/24
Next: re: Is there another major award that has MORE favorable odds than the Tonys? - Chazwaza 08:30 pm EDT 04/29/24
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